IMF Chief Credits AI Spending for Sustaining Global Growth Amid Energy Shocks

BANGKOK — Massive, ongoing investments in artificial intelligence are single-handedly keeping the global economy afloat, cushioning it against persistent energy shocks and holding worldwide growth at approximately 3% annually. That was the central message delivered by International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva on Monday during her opening address in Bangkok for the joint annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank.

Speaking to global financial leaders, policymakers, and economists gathered in the Thai capital for the summit—which runs through October 18—Georgieva pointed out that while traditional economic indicators face heavy headwinds, the tech sector’s insatiable appetite for AI infrastructure is driving a powerful wedge against broader economic stagnation. The primary beneficiaries of this phenomenon, she noted, are the Asian economies that manufacture and supply the foundational hardware powering the AI revolution.

According to IMF data, widespread AI adoption and hardware manufacturing could ultimately add between 0.5 and 1 percentage point annually to economic growth in advanced economies, and between 0.2 and 0.8 points in emerging markets. In economic terms, a single percentage point represents the raw gap between two growth trajectories; an economy expanding at a modest 2% that suddenly gains a full point surges to a 3% growth rate, marking a substantial macroeconomic shift. Georgieva emphasized that at the higher end of that range, the economic boost from AI would more than offset the severe economic drag caused by aging populations across key regions.

The tangible impact of this tech-driven boom was highlighted in the IMF’s July outlook update, which revealed that the top four net exporters of AI hardware—Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand, and Malaysia—drastically outperformed their first-quarter growth forecasts. These nations beat projections by an impressive average of 4.4% on an annualized basis. South Korea stood out dramatically, posting a staggering 7.5% growth pace compared to the modest 1.8% the Fund had initially projected back in April.

Expanding on these figures during a curtain-raiser speech in Singapore last week, Georgieva noted that AI hardware and related technology products have rapidly expanded to account for more than a tenth of total global goods trade. Furthermore, she projected that cumulative AI investment as a share of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is on track to surpass the capital investments poured into historical infrastructure milestones, such as the building of the global railroads or the modern electricity grid.

Despite these extraordinary gains in specific sectors, Georgieva issued a stark warning regarding the uneven nature of the boom. She cautioned that the artificial intelligence wave is largely bypassing the vast majority of countries that sit outside of the specialized tech supply chain. Compounding this disparity, the IMF’s July update projected overall global growth for 2026 to settle at 3%, down from 3.5% in 2025, as ongoing conflicts, notably the war in the Middle East, continue to drive up global energy prices and weigh down non-tech industries.

Turning to the labor market, Georgieva offered a sobering assessment of how artificial intelligence is transforming the modern workplace, describing the shift as a "slow-moving tsunami." The IMF estimates that AI will eventually impact roughly 40% of all jobs worldwide, with many positions facing downgrades or outright elimination. Exposure to this disruption is heavily skewed geographically and economically: approximately 60% of jobs in advanced economies are exposed to AI integration, compared to roughly 23% in low-income countries. However, Georgieva clarified that poorer nations score lower on this exposure metric primarily because advanced technology infrastructure has not yet deeply penetrated their markets.

Young people entering the workforce for the first time are directly in the line of fire, she warned, because artificial intelligence is rapidly absorbing the routine, administrative tasks upon which traditional entry-level jobs are built. Echoing these concerns during a shared panel discussion, Singaporean President Tharman Shanmugaratnam noted that employer demand for university graduates’ initial jobs is already visibly declining. He warned that if governments fail to take proactive policy measures, the AI boom threatens to dangerously widen the economic chasm between wealthy nations and developing economies.

Beyond labor markets, the rapid rise of AI poses complex structural challenges for public finances. Georgieva explained that if artificial intelligence successfully shifts income away from human workers and toward the owners of capital, governments will inevitably lose a significant portion of the traditional labor tax base upon which they heavily lean to fund public services and infrastructure.

Addressing potential solutions for the developing world, World Bank President Ajay Banga announced during the panel that the World Bank is actively backing "small AI" initiatives. Unlike resource-intensive large language models, these smaller, targeted tools are designed specifically to support farmers, local medical clinics, and classrooms in emerging markets without requiring massive technological infrastructure.

Georgieva also reiterated warnings first raised in Singapore that the massive, energy-intensive build-out of AI infrastructure is actively contributing to global inflationary pressures. Moreover, she cautioned that because major AI corporations have relied heavily on debt financing to fund their rapid expansion, any potential earnings disappointments could quickly ripple outward and destabilize broader financial markets.

The global economic community now looks toward the formal release of the IMF’s comprehensive World Economic Outlook report, scheduled for publication at 9:00 a.m. Bangkok time on October 13—representing 10:00 p.m. Monday in New York. The upcoming report will deliver the organization’s first official revision to its 3% global growth forecast since the July update, providing further clarity on how the dual forces of AI investment and energy shocks are steering the world economy.