Groupe Amaury, the prominent media group that owns France Football and organizes the prestigious Ballon d’Or ceremony, has announced that a formal legal complaint is underway following a series of highly accurate prediction markets on Polymarket. The controversy erupted after a cluster of newly created crypto-wallets managed to successfully forecast the exact top five players for this year’s award in precise order ahead of the October 26 ceremony held in London.
The suspicious activity first came to light through reports published by French digital outlet Upside. On October 29, the publication released blockchain tracing data that successfully linked at least one of the participating accounts to a regulated French financial application capable of identifying its underlying customers. As the fallout from the prediction market anomaly widens, organizers are grappling with serious questions regarding potential information leaks and the integrity of the voting and announcement process.
A Money Trail From Polymarket to a French App
In an official statement released on Saturday, Groupe Amaury confirmed that legal action is actively being pursued. The organization cited “allegations of leaks of the results and potentially fraudulent bets,” adding that internal and external investigations are currently underway to thoroughly verify the facts and determine ultimate responsibility.
According to reports from Belgian daily La Dernière Heure—which were subsequently republished by La Libre—the formal complaint was scheduled to be filed on Monday morning. Furthermore, France Football has reportedly called in law enforcement agencies while launching its own internal inquiry into the matter. To date, however, no public prosecutor has officially confirmed the receipt of a complaint or the opening of a formal judicial investigation, and Polymarket has remained silent, failing to publicly address the controversial wagers.
The scrutiny began on October 23, three days before Harry Kane was officially announced as the winner of the coveted trophy in London. Upside identified 12 distinct Polymarket accounts that had been created in a tight window between October 1 and October 20. Together, these accounts staked a combined $264,000 on Ballon d’Or markets, all of them backing the exact same final ranking: Harry Kane in first place, followed by Kylian Mbappé, Lamine Yamal, Rodri, and Lionel Messi rounding out the top five.
An analysis of the blockchain activity revealed striking behavioral patterns. Seven of the accounts were used for no other bets whatsoever, while six placed their inaugural wagers within a mere 15 minutes of their respective account creations. When the results were finalized, these coordinated bets successfully returned close to $200,000 in net winnings.
Coincidentally, just hours before the ceremony commenced, the official Ballon d’Or website published three separate pre-written articles hailing Kane, Mbappé, and Yamal each individually as the winner. Organizers subsequently explained that these drafts had been prepared in advance for all potential nominees as part of standard media readiness and did not intentionally reveal the actual podium beforehand.
In its follow-up investigation published on October 29, Upside traced approximately $309,000 in initial cryptocurrency deposits made across the 12 accounts, alongside roughly $500,000 in total withdrawals executed immediately after the official results were announced. The velocity of the capital flight was notable: the very first withdrawal occurred just 19 minutes after the rankings went public, and a staggering $374,000 had already left the decentralized prediction platform within three hours.
Upside categorized the accounts into three distinct clusters based on their underlying money transfers. However, because the researchers found no transactional links passing between these different groups, they could not definitively determine whether a single bad actor or a coordinated syndicate of individuals was behind the scheme.
The account with the most transparent and traceable trail was registered under the username kraben006, which has since been renamed Edgarblade. This wallet stood out as the only one among the dozen to place wagers across all five individual finishing positions, initiating its betting activity with Kane on October 1. Upside revealed that the wallet’s very first funds—amounting to approximately $250—originated in January from an address belonging to Deblock, a licensed French financial application. While Deblock possesses the technical capability to trace the original sender, it is bound by privacy regulations to disclose customer identities exclusively to accredited law enforcement authorities.
Several other accounts involved in the betting ring were funded through mainstream cryptocurrency and financial platforms that enforce strict Know-Your-Customer (KYC) identity verification protocols, including Binance, Kraken, KuCoin, and Revolut.
Despite the highly suspicious nature and improbable accuracy of the wagers, analysts and investigators emphasize that being correct does not, on its own, constitute definitive proof of an illicit information leak. Upside noted that by the time ceremony day arrived, each of the five individual podium positions had drifted or settled at trading probabilities of around 60% on Polymarket, making the final outcome the consensus market favorite by that late stage. The real anomaly, experts argue, lies in the sheer volume of capital deployed by these 12 accounts between October 1 and October 20 via unusual funding channels, especially considering that official jury voting had already closed on September 28—three days before the earliest of the suspect accounts was even created.
Adding another layer of intrigue to the unfolding scandal, a separate report published by Upside on October 31 uncovered an older, distinct account operating under the name Kallipso. This account exhibited a remarkable multi-year track record, successfully backing the ultimate Ballon d’Or winner three consecutive times: Rodri in 2024 (acquired at a low price of 7 cents), Ousmane Dembélé in 2025, and finally Harry Kane in 2026. This consistent betting strategy yielded close to $50,000 in total cumulative winnings.
Notably, Kallipso’s initial purchase of shares favoring Kane occurred at 11:59 p.m. Paris time on September 28—a mere one minute before the official jury voting window slammed shut. Investigators from Upside found no financial transactions or blockchain links connecting Kallipso to the cluster of 12 newer accounts, and stressed that there is no hard evidence proving the account holder possessed confidential insider knowledge.
The controversy also places Polymarket under renewed regulatory scrutiny in Europe. France’s national gaming regulator notably ordered internet service providers to block domestic access to Polymarket back in July, following a sharp surge in French traffic that saw visits climb to 578,000. It remains publicly unknown where the individuals operating the suspect accounts were physically located at the time the bets were placed.
Polymarket itself updated its platform rules in March to explicitly bar trading based on confidential information obtained in breach of a duty of trust. As the intersection of decentralized prediction markets and high-profile global sports events continues to attract regulatory attention, insider trading cases on similar event contracts have already begun reaching courtrooms in other jurisdictions, most notably in the United States, where federal authorities previously charged an Army soldier accused of leveraging classified information to bet on geopolitical outcomes. As Groupe Amaury moves forward with its legal complaints and police inquiries, the sports world watches closely to see whether the digital paper trail can definitively unmask those behind the Ballon d’Or prediction anomaly.
Bitcoin & Major Altcoins
Bitcoin & Major Altcoins
Bitcoin & Major Altcoins
